Sea level rise in the Pacific will contribute to environmental refugees

05 April 2011 CAIRNS - PACNEWS 

Most Pacific Island countries will continue to be affected by the impacts of sea level rise if Greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced drastically and urgently.

That’s the assessment of Dr John Church from the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research.

“We will not be able to stop sea level rise.

“We already seen some this century, we know the climate systems are out of balance now so we are committed to some further sea level rise even if we stop all emissions today. And we know we won’t be able to stop emissions today and emissions will continue.

Dr Church told PACNEWS sea level rise will also contribute to environmental refugees especially in the islands where countries in low lying atolls are vulnerable to climate change.

“Sea level will continue and this will impact people from prone areas in the Pacific Islands but it I think it will be particularly urgent where vast people live very close to the coast. Sea level rise will affect this people environment.

“Personally I think it’s inevitable that there will be migrations from these areas. We can take various other adaptation measures to limit sea level rise but it’s unlikely we will be able to protect every area and this will place people at risk.

Dr Church said sea level rise will be most felt in the Pacific during extreme weather patterns like La NINA and El Nino in the region.

“This will increase the risks of major impacts on island nations, so I think some of these islands will be at risk.” Dr Church said…

Humidity increases will make more places inhabitable in the future

05 APRIL 2011 CAIRNS (PACNEWS)

Some parts of the world will become inhabitable for people to live in the next centuries if the rising humidity will contribute significantly to increase heat stress in a warmer world.

That’s the view of Dr Steve Sherwood, the Co Director for Climate Change Research Centre at the University of the New South Wales.

Dr Sherwood said the increase in global warming will severely affect where people live and will make some places inhabitable to live.

“The humidity increases near the surfaces where people live, about 6 percent for every degrees Celsius of temperature increase, so if we have several degrees of global warming over the centuries for example we would expect about 20 percent in humidity.

“In places that are already very humid, I think will have a large impact on peoples happiness and productivity during the warm and wet seasons including in the Pacific islands. I’m not sure how severely the Pacific islands will be affected compared to the regions we focused on our study,” Dr Sherwood told PACNEWS.

Dr Sherwood said most of the places that are likely to be affected by the increase in humidity include the Amazon and India.

However, he said Pacific Islands will be less affected because of the ocean that surrounds the islands.

“We focused more on larger continental regions - the Amazon and India are places that will be badly affected. It won’t be quite as bad in the Pacific Islands because of the mitigating factor of having the ocean around which reduces the extremes but heat stress would still become a large problem because it always be there during the hard humid season.

He said Industrialised nations should curtail their emissions of Greenhouse gases to avert the situation in future.

“It’s out of the hands of the people living in those areas, they are not the one producing the pollution.

“This is very unfortunate  but the only solution from the global standpoint  is either to curtail rapidly the emissions of  Greenhouse gases and really to decide we are not going to burn much of the coal, and the oil sales and the so on, they have to be left on the ground,” Dr Sherwood said.

More than 400 delegates from around Australia and the Pacific are attending the Science of Climate Change, Greenhouse 2011 meeting underway in Cairns

Pacific Climate Change Science Program HEAD ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PACIFIC

05 April 2011 - Solomon Islands Broadcasting Corporation.

Global efforts need to be re- doubled, highlighted and re-focused on mitigation.

Head of the Pacific Climate Change Science Program, PCCSP, Dr Gillian Cambers was speaking to pacific journalists in an interview at the Greenhouse 2011 Conference.

Dr Cambers said the focus from recent years from a lot of aid agencies and countries has been and still is on adaptation.

“I think we have to re-double our efforts, to really highlight and focus again, as we did before Copenhagen on mitigation, I think that’s really the message we need to keep hammering, hammering home”.

“Yes we need to adapt, there are certain aspects of Climate Change we know are happening, we’ve got to adapt to them, but unless we really face the hard decisions which are involved in mitigation, then we’re not addressing the issue at all “, said Dr Cambers.

Meanwhile the head of the PCCSP said with the results that are being produced by the project at the end of the year which will give the best possible science that’s available now and on how things are going to change in the future, pacific island countries will be able to develop their own policies as to which areas that will be tackled first.

The PCCSP is a three year initiative funded by AusAid and managed by the Australian Government’s Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency with the aim of working with the 14 pacific island countries and East Timor to understand how the climate has changed in the past, what it is doing now and how it will change in the future.

Dr Cambers said they have been working closely with the countries, in particular the National Meteorological Services and Environment Departments and regional organisations such as SPREP, SPC and USP and many other organisations to undertake research that needs to be done to look at how the climate changed over the last 30 years.

She said the information will be then built into a database which will be used to project what will happen in the next 30 to 50 years as carbon dioxide levels increase in a warming planet.

Dr Cambers also explained that the PCCSP consists of three components research, capacity building and information sharing.

“With regards to capacity building we have held several regional workshops involving National Meteorological Services and also representatives from Ministries of Environments  Fisheries and Finance to basically share with them the information we’re continually finding out about past climate and future climate”, she said.

She also revealed that the project has this year started a series of in-country visits to all 14 pacific island countries and East Timor twice to install and provide training for a climate database management system where all the observations and information can be stored.

“ It’s a tool that we call Clyde,  and we have so far done four visits to Samoa, Vanuatu, Kiribati and Tonga but we’re steadily working through every country as the year progresses”, Dr Cambers said.

The PCCSP Head said they were also doing a second series of in-country visits where they will be sharing information on how the climate change in the future or projections.

“We’ll be providing training to the Met Service Representatives and also other ministries along with a software tool called Climate Futures so everybody will be able to see what the best scientific projected changes in climate are for each country”, she said.

Meanwhile the Greenhouse 2011 has now ended its first two days of sessions. Tomorrow’s program includes a tour to the Great Barrier Reef and the Daintree rainforest in Cairns.

Sessions at the conference are focussed on oceans atmosphere biosphere climate modelling climate change projections climate variability extreme events impacts and adaptation biodiversity policy and economics and communicating climate change.

Coverage of the GreenHouse2011 conference in Cairns written by Rozalee Nongebatu of the Solomon Islands Broadcasting Corporation.

ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES

 04 April 2011 – Solomon Islands Broadcasting Corporation

The Greenhouse 2011 conference has been told that Environmental Refugees is an issue that will need to be dealt with in the 21^st century. Dr John Church, the research team leader for the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation’s Wealth from Oceans Flagship said this in an interview with SIBC’s Rozalee Nongebatu following his presentation on Sea Level Rise and the Earth’s Warming at the conference.

He said as the ocean is getting warmer, ongoing sea level rise will also be certain during the 21^st century and beyond, adding that there are long term changes that we are now initiating.The research scientist also spoke of the main contributing factors of the observed sea level rise in the last forty years.

“The two largest contributions to sea level rise in at least the last forty years are the thermal expansion of the ocean, contributing at least 40% to the observed sea level rise since 1970, and the other equally important contribution is the melting of glaciers and ice caps in Patagonia, Alaska, Europe, and Atlanta also contributing 40% of the observed sea level rise” said Dr Church.

He said the other three contributions to the rise of sea level are from the Greenland and Antarctica sheets, they’re  both are contributing small amounts and both the ice sheet contributions and also the glacier and ice cap contributions have also increased since the 1970.

“And for the ice sheets, it has increased particularly from the 1990s up to present.”

Dr Church said over the total period the contribution from the ice sheets is only about 20 percent of the total but it’s increasing over the recent years.

Meanwhile Dr Church says greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have got long time frames, the ocean also has very long time frame to respond to greenhouse gas concentrations and the ice sheets have got very long time frames, so this means sea level rise will continue for many centuries.He said if the worst case sea level rise scenarios are to be avoided, we need to reduce our emissions drastically and urgently.

“However we will not be able to stop all sea level rise, we’ve already seen some this century, we know the climate system is out of balance right now so we’re committed to some sea level rise even if we stopped emissions today.” said Dr Church.

“So sea level rise will continue and it will impact people from your own area, people in the pacific islands and elsewhere in the world where vast numbers of people live near the coast.”

The Research Scientist said it is inevitable there will be migration from these areas at least to some extent.

“We can take various adaptation measures to live with sea level rise in various ways and we can protect various areas, but I feel it is unlikely we will be able to protect every area and this will place people at the risk and people will want to choose to live in a much safer environment” said Dr Church.He also explained that for the pacific, the impacts of sea level rise will be felt most acutely through extreme events, strong surges, the El Nino and La Nina cycles, cyclones, tides.

“These things put together will increase the risk of major impacts on island nations so I think some of these island nations will be at risk”, said Dr Church.

The above photo of Dr. John Church was obtained from the CSIRO website.
Coverage of the GreenHouse2011 conference in Cairns written by Rozalee Nongebatu of the Solomon Islands Broadcasting Corporation.

Ocean depth and ice no longer a barrier to Climate change

04 April 2011 – PACNEWS

A climate change science programme generating unprecedented   volumes of data is about to venture deeper and into previously hidden corners of the world oceans to confirm rising ocean temperatures, a climate change conference, Greenhouse 2011 was told

Most excess heat being absorbed by the earth is stored in the oceans, and half of this excess heat has gone into warming the southern hemisphere oceans.

“Within a decade, scientists will be receiving a three dimensional view of the ocean from the surface to the seafloor and beneath expanding and retreating sea ice from a new generation of sensor equipped robots,” says U.S Oceanographer Dr Dean Roemmich.

Dr Roemmich from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography was speaking at the Science of climate change conference, GreenHouse 2011 in Cairns, Australia

 “In the past 10 years scientists have constructed a 30 nation comprehensive observing systems that has altered what we know of the oceans from the surface layer down to 2000 m and the major influences they exert on the global climate change. 

“Below those surface layers the scientific ‘dots’ have been sparse but we Are now looking at the opportunity to join them together and expand our knowledge of all the ocean processes – their deepwater circulation patterns, temperatures and salinity  and the manner in which they can store away carbon and  other greenhouse gases.

“Because 90 percent of the excess heat being absorbed by our planet is stored in the oceans with comprehensive measurements of ocean temperature we are now able to describe the global pattern of climate warming.

“Moreover, a finding from our data is that over half of this excess heat has gone into warming the southern hemisphere oceans between 30S and 60S,” Dr Roemmich said

Dr Roemmich said with each robotic profiler reporting every 10 days, and some having done so for the past seven or more years, scientists now have access to an unprecedented bank of ocean data that will expand as new censors are tested and installed in new deployments of profilers.

For example, he said additional oxygen sensors will indicate sub-surface change that has implication for ocean productivity and the security of food supplied by the oceans.

“We now have a 140 year historical record of ocean temperatures, from the first purely oceanographic voyage by the Challenger in the 1870s through to today with ocean profilers below the surface and satellites generating constant surface information.

“It is beneath the ice and those deeper corners of the ocean where we need to be now focusing our attention as engineers and oceanographers,” Dr Roemmich said.

PACNEWS coverage of the Science of Climate Change, GreenHouse 2011 conference in Cairns, Australia is made possible with funding assistance from CSIRO Australia under the Pacific Climate Change Programme.

 

Australian government committed in tackling climate change: Combet

04 April 2011 – PACNEWS

By Pita Ligaiula, in Cairns Australia

The Australian Minister for Climate Change says the Australian Government is committed to addressing climate change and reducing Australia’s carbon pollution.

Greg Combet, while opening the Science of Climate Change, GreenHouse 2011 meeting underway in Cairns says human activity is causing carbon pollution which is leading to climate change.

He warned that if action is not taken to reduce emissions, climate is likely to change in ways that present grave risks to our economy, our environment, and our way of life. 

He said the Australian Government recognise the contribution that scientists are making in progressing their understanding of climate change.“Robust science is vital to understanding, and therefore appropriately managing, the impacts of climate change.

“Communicating climate change science accurately and effectively is equally important. “We must move beyond the baseless attacks on the science of climate change, and enable this fundamental issue to be better understood across our community, he said.

He said uncertainty about the specific nature of future impacts does not undermine certainty about the fundamental conclusions of the climate science, or the need to take action. To borrow a line from Professor Will Steffen, “The scientific basis and imperative for rapid and vigorous action to reduce emissions is overwhelming”.

“Unfortunately though, the confusion in the community has in part been fuelled by a small number of scientists and commentators – few of whom have relevant credentials – continuing to question the climate change science, even as evidence to the contrary grows in strength”

He said the Australian Government has established the Climate Commission to provide expert independent advice and information on climate change to the Australian community. “I also extend the invitation to all scientists to help build community consensus on climate change, Combet said.

“In the current circumstances it is perhaps more important than ever that scientists are actively engaged in the public discussion on climate change, by injecting fact-based, rational arguments into the debate. “I also recognise the frustration that these attempts are often met with. I would like to call on every one of you to continue in your efforts and to communicate climate change science at every opportunity, to refute misinformation and baseless remarks in the popular media.

Combet said an open and fact-based public debate is critical to building the consensus needed to support strong action on climate change.

The above photo of the Minister of Climate Change & Energy Efficiency was sourced from the Australian Government website.

http://www.climatechange.gov.au/minister/greg-combet/2011/media-releases/May/20110504.aspx

Dr Roemich – Scripps Institution of Oceanography

04 April 2011 – Solomon Islands Broadcasting Corporation

The Greenhouse 2011 Conference has been told that a climate change research program is about to venture deeper into the previously hidden corners of the world’s ocean to confirm rising ocean temperatures.

In his presentation this morning Doctor Dean Roemich of Scripps Institution of Oceanography in the United States says the most excess heat absorbed by earth is stored in the oceans and half of this excess heat warms the Southern Hemisphere.

Dr Roemich says within a decade, scientists will begin receiving a three dimensional view of the ocean from the surface to the seafloor and beneath expanding and retreating sea ice from a new generation of sensor equipped robots.

He says in the past 10 years scientists have constructed a 30 nation comprehensive observing system that has altered what we know of the oceans from the surface layer down to 2000 metres and the major influences they exert on the global climate system.

The visiting US Oceanographer says because 90% of the excess heat being absorbed by our planet is stored in the oceans, with comprehensive measurements of ocean temperature, they are now able to describe the global pattern of climate warming.

He says their findings is that more than a half of this excess heat has gone into warming the Southern Hemisphere oceans between about 30S and 60S.

Dr Roemich jointly leads the robotic research program called Argo with an Oceanographer from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Program’s Wealth from Oceans Flagshi , Dr Susan Wijffels.

Coverage of the GreenHouse2011 conference in Cairns written by Rozalee Nongebatu of the Solomon Islands Broadcasting Corporation.